Atụmatụ Ịgba Nzọ Roulette · Usoro mmụba nzọ dị mma · 8 min

Atụmatụ Roulette Paroli (Martingale Azụ)

Atụmatụ roulette Paroli na-eme nzọ okpukpu abụọ mgbe mmeri gasịrị, ma laghachi na mbido mgbe mfu gasịrị ma ọ bụ mgbe mmeri atọ sochiri onwe ha.

Azịza dị mkpirikpi

Ọ naghị emeri wiil; ọ na-agbanwe naanị otu mfu si abịa. Paroli na-etinye n’ihe egwu otu nzọ mbido nke ego gị kwa cycle, ma jiri ego e meriri gaa n’ihu maka ndị ọzọ. Mfu a tụrụ anyamgbakọMfu a tụrụ anyaUru a tụrụ anya mụbara na ngụkọta ego e tinyere na nzọ; nkezi ego a na-atụfu n’otu oge egwuregwu ma ọ bụ n’otu oge.Gụọ ya niile → agbanweghị.

ebumnuche
mmeri 3 · unit 7
p(mmeri 3)
11.5%
uru ụlọ
2.70%
ihe egwu kacha elu
unit 1 nke ego gị

Soro usoro ahụ

Mmeri na-aga otu nzọụkwụ n’ihu. Mfu, ma ọ bụ mmeri nke atọ, na-alaghachi na mmalite.

124Mmeri
ego nzọ na-esote1nsonaazụ ruo ugbu a0ntụgharị0

Ego nzọ na nsonaazụ dị n’unit nke nzọ mbụ.

Kedu otu usoro roulette Paroli si arụ ọrụ?

Gbaa nzọ otu unitegoUnitEgo nzọ ntọala nke otu usoro ma ọ bụ onye egwuregwu na-eji arụ ọrụ. A na-akọwa usoro mmụba nzọ na unit ka ha metụta tebụl ọ bụla.Gụọ ya niile →. Merie, hapụkwa ya niile n’elu tebụl: nzọ na-esote bụ abụọ. Merie ọzọ, ọ bụrụ anọ. Merie nke ugboro atọ, nara uru unit asaa ma laghachi na otu. Tufuo n’oge ọ bụla, ị laghachikwa na otu. Nke ahụ bụ usoro ahụ niile. Mgbe mmeri mbụ gasịrị, ị na-agba nzọ n’ego i meriri, ya mere ihe kacha ego egwuregwuegoEgo egwuregwuNgụkọta ego e debere maka igwu egwu. Njikwa ego egwuregwu bụ ikpebi ole n’ime ya a ga-etinye n’ihe egwu kwa nzọ na kwa oge egwuregwu.Gụọ ya niile → gị nwere ike ịtụfu na cycle ọ bụla bụ otu unit. Mmeri atọ nke nzọ ego hara nhata sochiri onwe ha na-eme na oheremgbakọOhereOhere nke otu nsonaazụ, site na 0 ruo 1 ma ọ bụ 0% ruo 100%. Otu nọmba: 1/37 = 2.70%.Gụọ ya niile → (18/37)³ = 11.5%, ihe dị ka otu cycle n’ime itoolu.

nzọụkwụego nzọ (unit)ego gị nọ n’ihe egwunsonaazụ ikpeazụ ma nzọ a tufuonsonaazụ ikpeazụ ma nzọ a merie
111−1+1, gaa na nzọụkwụ 2
221−1+3, gaa na nzọụkwụ 3
341−1+7, cycle agwụla
ohere iru ebe ahụnzọụkwụ 2: 48.6% · nzọụkwụ 3: 23.7% · agwụla: 11.5%
Ihe ọ bụla mere, cycle na-efu kacha otu unit nke ego gị. Ọtụtụ cycle na-efu kpọmkwem nke ahụ.

Kedu ka oge egwuregwu si adị?

Ntapu nwayọọ nwere mwụli elu mgbe ụfọdụ. Chee echiche ịzụta otu obere tiketi ugboro ugboro: nke ọ bụla na-efu otu unit, ọtụtụ adịghị ihe ha na-akwụ, ihe dị ka otu n’ime itoolu na-akwụkwa asaa. Ohere imecha oge egwuregwu ntụgharị 100 n’uru dị ala (ihe dị ka 30%) n’ihi na ọtụtụ oge egwuregwu enweghị cycle zuru ezu nke ga-akwụghachi mfu unit otu na-adịgide; mgbe oge egwuregwu mechara n’uru, ọ na-emechakarị n’uru dị ukwuu.

Oge egwuregwu Paroli iri, $10 mbidonsonaazụ megide mmalite
+$790$0−$500+$340−$2500125250375500ntụgharịnsonaazụ
oge egwuregwu 1,000 × ntụgharị 500 · violet p10/p25/p75/p90, acha anụnụ anụnụ dị nro median, sample 82 na-adịghị doro anya · gafee n’elu chaatị ka ịhụ quantile n’otu ntụgharị
  • p10 −$500
  • p25 −$500
  • median −$300
  • p75 +$30
  • p90 +$320
oge egwuregwu 1,000 × ntụgharị 500 · a kpụchara axis y na percentile 1–99 (nsọtụ −$500 ruo +$1,150) · ntụgharị 500 · nzọ mbụ $10 · ego hara nhata
Steepụ na-agbada, nzọụkwụ na-arị elu mgbe ụfọdụ. Enweghị ugwu e si ada.
Dị ka obere tiketi a zụtara ugboro ugboro: ọtụtụ adịghị ihe ha na-akwụ, ihe dị ka otu n’ime itoolu na-akwụkwa asaa.

Usoro Paroli ọ na-arụ ọrụ?

Mba. Ọ na-agbanwe ọdịdị mfu, ọ bụghị ịdị ukwuu ha. Ka p = 18/37. Merie 7 na ohere p³ = 0.115; tufuo 1 na ohere 1 − p³ = 0.885. Nsonaazụ a tụrụ anya kwa cycle: 7(0.115) − 1(0.885) = 0.805 − 0.885 = −0.08 unit. Unit a tụrụ anya e ji gbaa nzọ kwa cycle: 1 + 2p + 4p² = 1 + 0.973 + 0.947 = 2.92. Kee ya: −0.08 / 2.92 = −2.7%. Usoro ọ bụla na-enye ọnụọgụ a mgbe i mere nkewa ahụ.

Echiche na-adọrọ adọrọ bụ na chipegoChipIhe nnọchi anya ego a kara aka, a na-etinye na mbadamba nzọ iji gbaa nzọ. A na-akpọkwa ya: check.Gụọ ya niile → e ji gaa n’ihu bụ ego kasino, ya mere itinye ha anaghị efu ihe ọ bụla. Ha bụ nke gị site n’oge a kwụrụ ha, nke ọ bụla e tinyeghachiri n’elu tebụl na-ebu otu 2.70% ahụ.

Gịnị ma ọ bụrụ na i chere mmeri anọ sochiri onwe ha?

ParoliatụmatụParoliUsoro mmụba nzọ dị mma: mee ya okpukpu abụọ mgbe i meriri, malitegharịa mgbe i tufuru ma ọ bụ mgbe mmeri atọ n’usoro gasịrị. A na-akpọkwa ya: Martingale azụ.Gụọ ya niile → ruo mmeri anọ na-eme otu unit ka ọ bụrụ 16, uru nke 15, na ohere (18/37)⁴ = 5.6%. Taylor (2021) jụrụ ajụjụ dị nkọ karịa: site n’ego egwuregwu nke unit ole na ole, gịnị bụ ohere inweta otu usoro mmeri dị otu a tupu ego egwuregwu agwụ? Cycle ọ bụla dara ada na-efu kpọmkwem otu unit, ya mere site na unit 15 azịza ya bụ 1 − (1 − 0.056)¹⁵ = 58%, ka mma karịa 48.6% nke itinye 15 niile n’uhienzọUhieNzọ ego hara nhata na nọmba uhie 18. French: rouge.Gụọ ya niile → otu mgbe. Nsogbu ya na-egosi na ọnụọgụ ndị ọzọ. Usoro mmeri ahụ na-abịakarị mgbe ọtụtụ cycle dara ada gasịrị, ya mere uru mgbe ọ bịara bụ unit 9 na nkezi, ọ bụghị 15, ma n’ihi na usoro mmụba nzọatụmatụUsoro mmụba nzọIwu ọ bụla na-agbanwe ego nzọ dabere na nsonaazụ gara aga. Usoro na-adịghị mma na-ebuli ya mgbe mfu gasịrị, usoro dị mma mgbe mmeri gasịrị.Gụọ ya niile → ahụ na-agba nzọ karịa na ngụkọta, nsonaazụ nkezi ya ka njọ karịa nke otu nzọ ahụ.

ego egwuregwu, unitohere usoro mmeri anọ tupu ọ gwụnsonaazụ ikpeazụ nkezi mgbe ọ bịaransonaazụ nkezi
315.9%+14.0−0.29
836.9%+11.8−0.68
1557.9%+9.1−1.07
3082.3%+4.6−1.52
Uhie na wiil nwere otu efu, mbido otu unit, ịkwụsị n’usoro mmeri anọ mbụ ma ọ bụ mgbe ego egwuregwu gwụrụ. Maka ntụnyere, otu nzọ unit 15 n’uhie na-emeri 15 na ohere 48.6%, nsonaazụ nkezi ya bụkwa −0.41 unit.

Ọ dị mkpa ebe ị kwụsịrị?

Naanị maka ọdịdị. Paroli ruo mmeri abụọ (nara 3) ma ọ bụ mmeri anọ (nara 15) na-agbanwe ugboro ole ọ na-akụ na ihe nrite ahụ, ọ bụghị uru ụlọ. “Parlay” na nzọ straight up (hapụ mmeri 35 ruo 1 ka ọ gaa n’ihu) bụ otu echiche ahụ na p = 1/37 na ụgwọegoỤgwọIhe nzọ meriri na-eweghachi, a na-ekwu ya dị ka “X ruo 1” na mgbakwunye ego nzọ e weghachiri.Gụọ ya niile → 1,295 ruo 1 maka ịkụ ugboro abụọ sochiri onwe ha, nke bụ ihe mere o ji bụrụ akụkọ karịa ihe a na-eme.

Onye na-ahọrọ ya, gịnịkwa mere?

Ndị egwuregwu chọrọ mfu kacha elu doro anya, dịkwa nta kwa cycle, ma nwee obi ụtọ ịtụfu nwayọọ maka ohere nke mmeri buru ibu. Ọ bụ enyo uche nke MartingaleatụmatụMartingaleUsoro mmụba nzọ na-eme nzọ okpukpu abụọ mgbe mfu ọ bụla gasịrị. Lee ngalaba Atụmatụ maka ihe ọ na-eme na ihe ọ naghị eme.Gụọ ya niile →: Martingale na-eme ka i chee na ị bụ onye mmeri ruo abalị ị na-abụghị; Paroli na-eme ka i chee na ị bụ onye tufuru ruo abalị ị na-abụghị. Ụlọ na-ewere 2.70% nke ngụkọta nzọegoNgụkọta nzọNgụkọta ego e tinyere na nzọ n’otu oge egwuregwu ma ọ bụ otu oge, gụnyere mmeri a gbara nzọ ọzọ. A na-akpọkwa ya: handle, action.Gụọ ya niile → n’ụzọ ọ bụla.

Simulator · Paroli

Oge egwuregwu 2,000 nke nzọ ego hara nhata site n’ego egwuregwu $1,000.

Nzọ mbụ $10 · oke tebụl $500 · ntụgharị 100 n’oge egwuregwu ọ bụla

Nkesa nsonaazụ oge egwuregwumfu ← | → uru
−$620$0+$770
gafee n’elu otu ogwe · ogwe uhie bụ oge egwuregwu tufuru ego, akwụkwọ ndụ nwere uru, ogwe na-acha mmimi na-agafe $0
oge egwuregwu nwere uru
36.8%
nsonaazụ median
−$60
nsonaazụ nkezi
−$54.99
ego gwụrụ
0.0%
percentile nke 5
−$370
median mbelata ego kachasị
−$230

Ajụjụ

Paroli, atụmatụ roulette Martingale azụ, ọ dị nchebe karịa Martingale?

Ọ dị nchebe karịa n’echiche na ọ pụghị iwepụta otu mfu ọdachi. Ọ dịghị ọnụ ala karịa: mfu a tụrụ anya kwa unit e ji gbaa nzọ bụ otu.

Ọ ka m kwesịrị ịkwụsị na mmeri atọ?

Ebe ịkwụsị ọ bụla na-arụ otu ọrụ ahụ na mgbakọ na mwepụ. Atọ bụ omenala n’ihi na ihe nrite ahụ (unit 7) dị ka ihe kwesịrị nchere, ugboro ọ na-akụ (11.5%) adịkwaghị enweghị olileanya.

Ihe ọchị

Iji ego e meriri gaa n’ihu ka bụ ịgba nzọ.

Iji ego e meriri gaa n’ihu ka bụ ịgba nzọ.

Isi Mmalite

  1. RouletteDoc. Nchịkọta atụmatụ roulette. https://roulettedoc.com/strategy
  2. Roulette77. Nkọwa atụmatụ na ihe atụ. https://roulette77.us/strategies/reverse-martingale
  3. Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling. Springer, 2010. Isi 13, roulette.
  4. Epstein, R. A. The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic, 2nd ed. Academic Press, 2013.
  5. Taylor, D. G. Games, Gambling, and Probability: An Introduction to Mathematics, 2nd ed. CRC Press, 2021.
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